THIS BLOG HAS MOVED

I have moved the posts on this site to RubensBaseball.blogspot.com.  Please update your bookmarks and follow me over there.


If you're looking for Red Sox tickets, click here. You can find any event tickets you want at the Authority.

Opening Day... and more

Very quick update. Was at Fenway for Opening Day. It was predictably awesome. Other than the rings, banner etc, a few unexpected surprises: Was interviewed for WBZ radio in Boston, and got my picture taken with Boston iconic Police Officer Steven Horgan:

Took hundreds of pictures, you can see some of the best ones on Flickr here.

Today is the first Red Sox Nation watch party of the year. Come join us at Schank's South on MacLeod Trail. All baseball fans welcome, we should be easy to spot.  Starts at 11 AM, details here.


If you're looking for Red Sox tickets, click here. You can find any event tickets you want at the Authority.

2014 MLB Predictions

I'll never learn. Every year I subject myself to the punishment of putting predictions in writing that inevitably look awful in retrospect. Although not as bad as certain professional sports writers who against all odds manage to predict their own division exactly backwards. I can't give this picture enough love:

Screenshot courtesy of SOSHer BannedByNYYFans

At least you gotta give CHB credit for making predictions knowing how much ridicule he is exposing himself to.

Anyhow, I'm going to try something a bit different this year. Instead of specific records or division standings, I will aim to make one radical projection for each team and division. I don't expect to get too many of them right, but at least this maybe entertaining.


Let's start with our favourite division:

AL East:
"Best division in baseball" won't have any wildcard teams, although every team that doesn't have a maple leaf on their logo will have a reasonable shot at winning the division.

Boston - I don't want to be called superstitious, but I predicted 86 wins last year and the season ended with duckboats. So, I'll keep this simple and predict 86 again. (And hope I'm wrong again!).  I have more Red Sox predictions here.
Tampa Bay - Their pitching staff will disappoint, keeping them from going over the 90 win mark - could even drop all the way to 4th place.
Toronto - After a disappointing 2013 with such high expectations, they will disappoint even more in 2014. Canadian GM Alex Anthopolous is smart enough to see that and Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion will have a new place to call home by the time the dog days of summer roll around. I bet they wish they still had Henderson Alvarez.
New York - Injuries and age will finally catch up with them and they'll struggle to reach .500 (I feel like I've made this prediction for about the past 10 seasons. EVENTUALLY it will have to be right, no?). Some controversy over whether to keep starting Jeter when he's hurting the team by being on the field, will be alleviated by it not mattering once they drop out of the race.

AL Central:
There will be a pennant race into late September. Tigers will not be assured of a playoff spot.

Chicago - White Sox will not be the worst team in Chicago this season. Not a bold prediction? The Cubs won more games than them last year.
Cleveland - Jason Kipnis will firmly entrench himself in the "Who's the best 2nd baseman in the league" argument, but that won't be enough for the Indians to go from making the playoffs to not winning more than 81 games. It's called "regression to mean".  Sorry, Tito.
Detroit - Will struggle to win 90. Biggest disappointment outside of Georgia.
Kansas City - PLAYOFFS! Maybe even a division title.
Minnesota  - The Yankees will be wishing they still had Phil Hughes, and the the Twins will battle Cleveland for 3rd place and maybe even break the .500 mark.

AL West
Injuries to key Rangers and A's players will keep this division from being as strong as it was the last few seasons. But the rest of the division will still be looking up at these two.

Houston - Won't be the worst team in the league the 2nd half. 70 wins within reach.
Los Angeles - 4th place.
Oakland - Hard to believe this they are back-to-back reigning division champions. Won't 3-peat, but may get the 2nd wildcard spot.
Seattle - Improve to close to .500 but not in any playoff contention. For a change, they have the bats but not the arms.  Until a July trade to acquire David Price from Tampa.
Texas - Prince Fielder is going to love the Texas Heat. In spite of all the injuries they've suffered before the season even started, they will win the division for only the 3rd time this century. (Note: the other two times they made it to the Fall Classic).

NL East
Washington will run away with this division with very little competition.

Atlanta - Sorry peach state, no playoffs for you.
Miami - Will battle Atlanta for a meaningless 2nd place in this division. Jose Fernandez will end up ahead of Clayton Kershaw in Cy Young balloting.
New York - This team could win 90 games! Said Sandy Alderson, not me. They do have a really good future. But the future won't arrive in 2014 as they will finish in last place.
Philadelphia - They will make a smart trade at some point in the season. When Ruben Amaro Jr. is your GM this is as bold a prediction as it gets.
Washington - Only 100 win team in majors.  21 year old (yeah, really) Bryce Harper is named MVP, Strasburg could take the Cy.

NL Central
Cincinnati and Milwaukee will remind St. Louis that there are still some competitive teams in this division. But Pittsburgh won't be one of them.

Chicago - Jeff Samardzija will be very good. "This is the year!" would be a really bold thing for me to say. I won't. Last place. Again. Not really going out on a limb here.
Cincinnati - With Dusty Baker gone, they will win more playoff games this year than they have in total since winning the World Series in 1990 (Five in 23 years, if you're wondering). Billy Hamilton may have a sub .300 OBP but his speed will allow him to be a key offensive contributor in spite of that.
Milwaukee - Along with Miami, among most improved teams in baseball. Will contend for a wildcard spot.
Pittsburgh - Will miss playoffs.  See Indians, Cleveland.
St. Louis - By the end of the season, neither Adam Wainwright nor Michael Wacha will be this team's ace.

NL West
Three team race with the Dodgers needing to hold off Arizona and San Francisco to repeat. Colorado will open some eyes early before eventually fading.

Arizona - Will be in pennant race through late September. A good offense was improved with the addition of Mark Trumbo, and bullpen was bolstered by removing Heath Bell.
Colorado - Canadian Justin Morneau will like the thin Denver air. 30 home runs within reach. This team will be competitive, but not enough to contend in this division.
Los Angeles - Remember all the drama with the Yankees in the late 70s played out in the press? There will be lots of entertainment for non-Dodger fans this year. Someone will be run out of town.
San Diego - Last place, Bud Black will be unemployed.
San Francisco - A good old Giants/Dodgers rivalry will be rekindled. Giants will contend for a playoff spot, may even overtake LA if they stumble.

Canadian Red Sox News

(USA Today Sports)

The only Canadian that was on our roster, Ryan Dempster, recently announced he was taking the season off. Of course, he did that in the two days between when I wrote a piece previewing the Sox and when it was published so there was the awkward mention on my post about hoping they don't trade him away....

Anyways,  who will be the next Canadian to play home games at Fenway Park?  We have a lack of first base prospects, so maybe the Reds will look for some salary relief in a few years and we'll get Joey Votto? Probably just wishful thinking.  We have lots of catching depth in the minors, but if there's a major injury to AJP or Ross, we may need a shorterm gap.  Would a return by George Kottaras be possible?  What about backup infielders? We need someone who can play 2B if Pedroia is out for a while.  Pete Orr could be available.  (Side note: A friend once asked me if I knew why Orr wore uniform #4. I had no idea. I was given a hint that it involved a Boston athlete. Since he played some third base, I figured maybe he was a Butch Hobson fan growing up? Apparently he shares a last name with some other dude who became famous in Boston wearing #4. Who knew?).   None of the above sound too likely.

Down on the farm we have Vancouver's Keaton Briscoe, who played mainly third base at Greenville last season. I believe he is the only Canadian (player) in the organization at the moment. He was signed by Canadian Red Sox scout Chris Pritchett after the 2012 June draft.

So, who do YOU think will be the next Canadian on the Red Sox roster?  Leave your guesses in the comments below.

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More local news, Calgary's own lieutenant-governor of Red Sox Nation, Marc David, is hosting another RSN Watch Party.   It's on Saturday April 12th when we take on the Yankees.  With the Melrose Red Mile shutting down, it's been moved to a new venue, Schank's South on MacLeod.  All the details on the watch parties page.

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And finally, yours truly, will be back at Fenway Park for Opening Day. If you're there look for me, if you're watching from the comfort of your living room, let me know if you see me on your screen. I'll be the guy wearing a Red Sox jersey and a hat with a big red B on it. Should be easy to spot (!).

Playing Pepper 2014 Red Sox

Yes, these are salt and pepper shakers

As mentioned previously, the Cardinals blog C70 at the bat at Cards Conclave hosts an annual series where bloggers from each team answer some specific questions in previewing their team's seasons.

As in previous years, other Baseball Bloggers Alliance members also participated Including fellow Canadian Red Sox fan and blogger Allan at The Joy of Sox, Christine from Boston Red Thoughts,  John at The Mighty Quinn Media Machine, Michael at The Pesky Pole, Bryan at Replacement Level Baseball Blog, Dave at Sox vs. Stripes and Dan at Talkin’ Sox With Dan.  To see how these Red Sox bloggers answered these questions, take a look at the Red Sox "Playing Pepper" page at C70 at the bat.

Below are the questions with the answers that I provided. As always, I welcome your comments and thoughts:

1) How would you grade the offseason?

As returning World Series Champions, Boston could afford to deal from a position of strength, and I'm glad the Sox took an "if it ain't broke don't fix it" approach. Which actually sounds strange, since we will have new players up the middle at catcher, shortstop and centerfield on opening day. Behind the plate we've replaced Salty with AJ Pierzynski. I'm not a big fan of his, but we still have David Ross as a capable backup and Ryan Lavarnway may be a decent option as a fill in if something happens. If he's not, we have Dan Butler and Christian Vazquez waiting in the wings. I'll call it a wash. The big offseason loss was Jacoby Ellsbury. Although we will miss his speed at the top of the lineup, I'm very excited about seeing what Jackie Bradley Jr. (JBJ) can do as the everyday centerfielder. I suspect this will be a net loss in the short term, but have little doubt that Boston will get more performance with the $153 million they saved by not resigning Ells than they would with him. At shortstop, Xander Bogaerts (X) is slated to start in place of Stephen Drew. As much as I love superior defense from the middle of the infield, Bogaert's bat will more than offset that. Mike Napoli's hip is still a ticking time-bomb and we did nothing to address first base (other than resign him), but Mike Carp showed he is more than capable to step in if necessary. Our starting rotation returns intact, and we've added some bullpen arms in Edward Mujica and Burke Badenhop. Never a bad idea to stockpile arms. With the caveat that there is still time to make some more changes, as long as they don't make any stupid moves (e.g., signing Drew long term, displacing either X or Middlebrooks; giving Dempster away from free because of the starter's logjam), I'm giving them an A- for this offseason.

2) Will the loss of Jacoby Ellsbury be significant?

No. Yes, you won't replace his 6 wins (bWAR) overnight, but barring injury, our outfield defense is set and has lots of depth. JBJ will be starting in CF; Victorino can play there if necessary, and Grady Sizemore is a long shot, but may become a viable option if he returns to form. This team should have learned last year that it's better to have several good players, than a couple of superstars surrounded by average players. The Red Sox have lots of good players and enough depth in the outfield to absorb the loss of Ells to the always and still hated Yankees.

3) Which roster battle will be the most intriguing during spring training?

Barring injury, I don't think there are any real battles. I hope the Red Sox don't use exhibition game stats to determine starters. I'm fairly confident Dustin Pedroia could go hitless in March and still be the opening day second baseman.  That said, if Middlebrooks takes a step backwards, and Garin Cecchini shows he's ready for The Show, there could be some controversy at the hot corner. But ultimately I suspect this will be more media and/or fan fueled than an actual front office plan, and Middlebrooks will be the opening day starter regardless.

4) What rookie, if any, will make the most impact on the team?

Despite JBJ being our opening day centerfielder last year and playing everyday for the first couple of weeks until David Ortiz came off the DL, and then getting called up a couple more times, before coming up for good in September, I was surprised to see he is still rookie eligible. So are Brandon Workman, Allan Webster and Drake Britton who could all be a big part of this year's arms in Boston.  But who am I kidding. Xander Bogaerts has a shot at being the Rookie of the Year, after already having been a big part of last year's postseason in Boston and his bat should have an immediate impact on the 2014 team.

5) What will be the final record of the team and where will they finish in the division? 

Last year I predicted 86-76 and a 3rd place finish, and we ended up World Champions. I'm not going to admit to being superstitious, but I don't want to upset the balance in the Universe, so I'll stick with the same prediction, and hope for the same incorrect result.

6) Which player from your team do you most enjoy watching?

There are so many likeable characters to choose from. It's easy to pick perennial favourites (Canadian spelling, eh?) such as Pedroia or Ortiz. And recent newcomers such as Gomes and Victorino seemed to become immediate fan darlings. Lester going from cancer survivor to team ace makes him a sentimental choice for many as well. And Koji’s crazy high five dugout celebrations are loved by all fans. And Daniel Nava? He goes from being cut by his college team to hitting a grand slam on the first pitch he sees in the majors.  But ever since I saw him play in Scottsdale in the Arizona Fall League, as a teammate to the much more heralded Bryce Harper and Mike Trout, I’ve been a big fan of Will Middlebrooks. After some struggles last year, I look forward to watching him bounce back and show some gold glove caliber defense and become a legitimate power threat with 30+ home runs.

Playing Pepper Preview 2014 edition

(Craig Wieczorkiewicz / Midwest League Traveller)

Every year, Daniel Shoptaw, who runs a Cardinals blog at C70 at the Bat, and is the  President of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, does a project he calls Playing Pepper, where he gets other teams' bloggers to preview their team. Last year I participated and among my prophecies I correctly forecasted John Lackey's surprising good season, and said I was excited to see Xander Bogaerts debut, but I suspected it wouldn't be until September.  I was off by about 10 days. (Of course, I also foresaw a 3rd place finish, but even I'm not perfect).

This year I will be answering the following questions.

1) How would you grade the offseason?
2) Will the loss of Jacoby Ellsbury be significant?
3) Which roster battle will be the most intriguing during spring training?
4) What rookie, if any, will make the most impact on the team in 2014?
5) What will be the final record of the team and where will they finish in the division?
6) Which player from your team do you most enjoy watching?

Look for an updated post on or around Feb 20th with my musings on the above.
UPDATE: Post is here

Meanwhile keep checking at C70 at the Bat as other team's previews start being posted.

2014 Hall of Fame results

It's been said by thousands of baseball fans, thousands of times, thousands of different ways.

The Hall of Fame, and the voting process is broken!

Someone should listen to Bill James already.  Anyways, in spite of many deserving players being left out for various ludicrous reasons, the BBWAA did manage to elect three players who definitely belong in Cooperstown. Congratulations to Misters Maddux, Glavine and Thomas.  Although none of them played for the Red Sox, or were Canadian, I did have all of them on my final ballot.   Major complaint this year by fans everywhere is about who got left out, not which unworthy player got in. At least Morris is off the ballot.


Shop online for tickets to the Red Sox such as those hard-to-come-by Red Sox Yankees game tickets.

2014 Hall of Fame - Part III - Ballot Time

In my previous posts, I reviewed the former Red Sox on the ballot and my thoughts on them, as well as my thoughts on players of interest to Canadians.

To recap, I had said the following eight players would get a checkmark on my ballot:

• Jeff Bagwell
• Edgar Martinez
• Fred McGriff
• Tim Raines
• Curt Schilling
• Lee Smith
• Frank Thomas
• Larry Walker

This leaves two open spots.   Players who I hadn't reviewed in these previous posts include Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Tom Glavine, Luis Gonzalez, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Mike Piazza, Alan Trammell and others who in a less crowded ballot might get some serious consideration.

I'm going to have to get some liquid paper and erase some of the checkmarks off of my in progress ballot. My ballot will need room for Barry Bonds, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and Craig Biggio.  Lee Smith and Fred McGriff will need to come out.  I feel awful that I don't have room for Alan Trammell.

My final ballot:

1. Jeff Bagwell
2. Craig Biggio
3. Barry Bonds
4. Tom Glavine
5. Greg Maddux
6. Edgar Martinez
7. Tim Raines
8. Curt Schilling
9. Frank Thomas
10. Larry Walker

For some more reading, you can take a look at The Hall of Nearly Great to read some great stories about several players that are not in Cooperstown.  This book has a compilation of some excellent writers talking about players who have not been elected, including some Red Sox favorites such as Luis Tiant, Dwight Evans and Ellis Burks.

2014 Hall of Fame - Part II - Canadians

In my last post, I previewed all the former Red Sox on this year’s ballot.  Today I take a look at the Canadians and other players of interest to Canada:

• 
  

CANADIAN PLAYERS

Eric Gagne – As already discussed in the Red Sox post, no. Just no.  NO

Larry Walker – Starting his career in Montreal, he is a favorite of many Canadians.  He ended his career with a .313 batting average, an even .400 OBP and 383 home runs, for an OPS+ of 141. A lot of people discredit him for his offensive output in Colorado, but keep in mind that the “+” in OPS+ is adjusted for ballpark effects.  And besides, in his MVP 1997 season where he hit .366 with 49 home runs, he only hit 20 out of Coors Field. Some park effect(!). 

2014 Hall of Fame - Part I - Red Sox players

There is a large list of solid Hall of Fame candidates on this year's ballot. Several sportswriters are struggling with the maximum of 10 votes per ballot. Even if you want to exclude the known cheaters  from consideration there are several names who will be left off ballots who are much more worthy than some recent questionable inductees.  Among these are several former Red Sox players as well as Canadians or players with a strong Canadian connection.

This post will include my thoughts on the Red Sox on this year's ballot (alphabetically). My next post will look at the Canadians and the players who played in Canada, and finally I will have a wrap up post with my full ballot. 

RED SOX players

Sean Casey - If there was a Hall of Fame for nice guys the Mayor would be an easy 1st year inductee. He was voted the friendliest player in baseball and I never heard anyone say a bad word about him.  And although his time with the Red Sox was brief, with him just being a backup 1st baseman for a season, he was a 3 time all-star with some power who finished his career with a .300 batting average. He's also made the Irish Hall of Fame and the Reds' one which includes all time greats such as Johnny Bench, Tom Seaver and Frank Robinson.  His friendliness may garner him a few thank you votes from the BBWAA, but he will drop off the ballot this year.  NO

Roger Clemens - if you just look at the stats, this is a no-brainer. But the Hall of Fame criteria also includes integrity, sportsmanship and character. And I'm not quite totally sure how to handle the whole PED thing yet. But not even considering that issue, in my opinion, Roger Clemens never exhibited much integrity, sportsmanship or character on or off the field.  He's not getting my vote.  NO

Baseball Bloggers Alliance Award Winners

The Baseball Bloggers Alliance has chosen annual award winners in both leagues.  Unsurprisingly this group of well-informed baseball devotee's picks mirrored mine very closely.

Here are their winners in the order they were posted with links to their announcements:

Connie Mack Award (Manager of the Year)
AL: John Farrell
NL: Clint Hurdle

I had the same picks, although I had Francona in 3rd place while in the BBA they were a very close 1-2. Much as I love Tito I feel like he had more to work with than Kansas City's Ned Yost.

Willie Mays Award (Top Rookie)
AL: Wil Myers
NL: Jose Fernandez

Again, we matched, although I'm a little surprised at how much of a landslide the BBA gave to Wil Myers, and very pleasantly surprised that Fernandez easily bested Puig.

Goose Gossage Award (Top Reliever)
AL: Koji Uehara
NL: Craig Kimbrel

Again, two perfect picks. Kimbrel received 90% of the votes and I really didn't hesitate at all in putting his name on my ballot, so I can see why.  Koji edged Greg Holland 52% to 36% and I also had them 1-2.  In 3rd place I infamously picked the Twins' Joe Nathan, and as I've been told numerous times now, he spent the season in Arlington. But I'm not going back to edit that post now.  I deserve all the mocking cast my way.

Walter Johnson Award (Top Pitcher)
AL: Max Scherzer
NL: Clayton Kershaw

No surprises there. I am curious as to who received the vote(s) that didn't go to Kershaw, as he only ended up with 98% of the votes.  Then again, I was the village idiot who didn't cast his vote for Scherzer so there's always some in the crowd, I guess.

Stan Musial Award (Top Player)
AL: Mike Trout
NL: Andrew McCutchen

Again, both RSN Alberta and the  BBA picked Trout over Cabrera. In my mind, however, this year Miggy has a better case.  As I outlined in my voting post, he had a better season than in 2012, and Trout's year wasn't quite as good as his rookie campaign.  But Trout was still better and rightfully received this award.   McCutchen was also a deserving recipient in the NL.

All in all, a great job by the guys and gals of the BBA.  Unlike the BBWAA, I don't think we've ever made grossly negligent picks.  I'm waiting to hear what the more established group picks for its awards.  I won't be as upset this year if they pick Miggy over Trout, last year was inexcusable, this year I can see it.  But I will be fuming when they pick Puig over the much more deserving Fernandez for NL Rookie.  Let's wait and see, maybe they'll prove me wrong and make the right picks this year.

Enjoy the offseason! It will be a good one for all us Red Sox fans!!  I'm going to be watching the below over and over again :)

2013 Stan Musial Award - AL Player of the Year

My final award in the Baseball Bloggers Alliance year end voting, is the Stan Musial Award for the player of the year. Last year in a slightly controversial vote I ignored Miguel Cabrera's triple crown, and cast my ballot for Mike Trout instead.  Well, this year, with a lot less media hype Cabrera had an even better season!  His batting average went up from .330 to .348. He hit the same number of home runs and only 2 less RBI in 67 fewer at-bats.  His walk ratio increased from below 10 to 14%.  He led the league in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging, to obviously lead in OPS / OPS+ as well. He led in OPS last season as well with .999, but this year he was at 1.078, the highest mark in the American League since 2006. Maybe I can make it up to Tigers fans by voting for him this year, when he'll need more of a push as he didn't get the glitzy (but meaningless) triple crown.

2013 Goose Gossage Award - AL Reliever of the Year

In my series of Baseball Bloggers Alliance award winners, today I am revealing my vote for the Goose Gossage Award for reliever of the year.  On a side note, there is an Alberta connection here as Mr. Gossage was in Calgary earlier this year.

This award always seems to stay in the East. In 2011, in a vote that was controversial with many of my readers, I selected the Yankees David Robertson over our own Jonathan Papelbon.  Last year, despite Baltimore's Jim Johnson leading the world in saves, I voted for the Tampa's Francisco Rodney.  This year is no different. In early August I might have needed to pore over stats carefully to determine who was most deserving, but after the way Koji Uehara finished the season, this one is a no-brainer.  

First some raw numbers:

2013 Walter Johnson Award - AL Pitcher of the Year

My series of Baseball Bloggers Alliance (BBA) award winners, continues with the American League Walter Johnson Award for Pitcher of the Year.   The past two seasons I selected Detroit's Justin Verlander, one year quite easily, the other one in a closer race.  This year it looks like the award will go to a Tiger again, but one of his teammates instead.  The big question is which one?

Max Scherzer is everyone's obvious choice.  He started off 13-0, deservedly started the all-star game and ended up 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA.  Last time a pitcher was so dominating and didn't win the Cy Young, was probably 1985 when John Tudor also won 21 games, including 10 shutouts and a sub 2 ERA, and lost to some kid named 'Doc'.  (In fact, Tudor didn't get a single first place vote!)

2013 Willie Mays Award - AL Rookie of the Year

After naming Boston manager John Farrell the winner of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance (BBA) Connie Mack Award, today I cast my ballot for the BBA's Willie Mays Award.   This is really the Jackie Robinson Award for Rookie of the Year.

Last year Mike Trout lapped the competition and was an unanimous winner receiving all the first place votes by BBA members. This year's rookie crop in the AL isn't quite as deep as last year's.  Nobody is breaking any Jackie Robinson like barriers, there are no Fred Lynn MVP type seasons, or players that captivated a nation like The Bird or Fernandomania in the past.  But there were several good players worthy of mention:

2013 Connie Mack Award - AL Manager of the Year

As a member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, I have the privilege of casting a ballot for all the end-of-season awards.  I did the National League ones earlier, and now I'll be doing American League one at a time.  I'll be going in order from the easiest to the toughest. The first one I am announcing this year is the Connie Mack award for Manager of the Year.  (No, it's not named for the Republican Senator from Florida, but this guy).

I had a feeling I knew who the winner would be before the season started.  In my preseason predictions I had some teams that I thought would win quite a few more games than last season, including Kansas City, Minnesota and Boston.  But I only saw one of these teams making the playoffs.  And yes, I may have a slight bias, but that hasn't stopped me from picking Joe Girardi for this same award in 2011 or even Yankee David Robertson over Papelbon for the reliever award in 2011.

National League Award Voting

Now that the regular season is over it’s once again time for my votes for the Baseball Bloggers Alliance (BBA) Awards.  In previousyears I have selected winners in all the American League categories.  This year I will also pick the National League winners.   Check back after the World Series to the BBA site to see who the award winners are

This post will present all of the National League picks with limited commentary.  Between now and the World Series I will post the AL winners, one award at a time with a detailed post and more explanation for each one.

Walter Johnson Award (Pitcher of the Year)

Not a lot of suspense with this one.  Lots of hurlers had seasons that would be deserving of an award in other years including Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright, Rookie Jose Fernandez (more on him in a minute) and even Matt Harvey until he was injured. But this year’s winner is unquestionably Sandy Koufax.  I mean Clayton Kershaw.

Results of Predictions from 2500 miles away

In this post, I made my annual season predictions. I don’t have the luxury of being in or close to any MLB markets, but in this electronic age with the ability to lookup any information and listen to any sports radio station from anywhere in real time, I’m not sure that’s a detriment.  In fact, seeing how the Boston Gl obe's own Dan Shaugnessy predicted the AL East standings with all his inside information and access to players and front office, I’m thinking that being away from the action may actually be a benefit.  Here were CHB’s thoughts:

Against all odds he managed to predict his own division exactly backwards!

 

Screenshot courtesy of SoSHer BannedByNYYFans

Maybe he should stick to writing books.

Anyhow, in my predictions I was aiming for a 75% confidence interval.  That means that when selecting a range of wins for all 30 teams, I should have had 22.5/30 correct.  I had 11 right – about half of what should be expected.  On the surface it doesn’t look that good but going team-by-team, I think my forecasts were better than most of the ones published by the so-called “experts”.   Everyone had the Blue Jays as World Series favorites, except for the dissenters who saw the Angels winning the American League.  And in the National League, the only question was who the Nationals had to beat in the NLCS to advance to the Fall Classic.  

Here is how each team did relative to my forecasts. Numbers in bracket are my original guess, comments in quotes are in reference to what I said in March.

AL East:

Boston -97 (83 to 89)  After winning only 69 games in 2012 I committed in writing that I thought they’d improve by up to 20 games. Well, they ended up being 28 games better.  “If everything goes right they could win the division with over 90 wins”.  If you saw that coming, put your hand up. If your hand is up, you are a liar(*). So even though I missed on my win interval, I am fairly pleased with my prediction.

Tampa – 92 (85 to 91) I missed by 1 using a fairly narrow range. Meh.

Yankees – 85 (77 to 87) I had a wide range here because although I expected them to have a down year I wasn’t quite sure as down. To be honest I thought the final results would be worse than they were, but it was within my predicted range.

Baltimore – 85 (72 to 84) As with Tampa I missed by 1, but I had thought they had the potential to do quite a bit worse.

Toronto – 74 (82 to 95) When everyone else had them as World Series favorites I thought they’d struggle to get past .500 (although I hedged my bets by having a large upper range). I was fairly certain they would underperform the lofty expectations given to them, but thought they would make more moves during the season to try and fight for a playoff spot.

Overall, I am giving myself a B+ on this division’s predictions. Only had one team within my expected range, but I feel like I correctly saw the direction that every team’s year would take.

It could have been much worse.   I could have curly hair and Carl Everett could have given me a malicious nickname that has stuck for over a decade.

 (*) Unless, Ras is reading this. You I believe.

AL Central:

Detroit – 93 (90 to 99) Predicting them to win the division with a win total in the 90s isn’t exactly Nostradamus like.

Cleveland – 92 (69 to 83). Did not see this coming. I had a huge range in wins for them, spanning from awful to respectable, and they won nine more than the most I had envisioned. Well done, Tito, I may have misspoke when I predicted you’d be “thinking fondly of the good old chicken wing and beer days”

Kansas City – 86 (76 to 86) “Lots of games against weak opponents will help them get to .500” I mused. I also erroneously said they wouldn’t seriously contend for a wildcard spot.  Still, their win total fell in the range.

Minnesota – 66 (75 to 85) I thought they’d be better. They weren’t.

Chicago – 63 (74 to 85) I correctly foresaw a down year for them. Didn’t quite expect it to be that bad.

I think the only area where I outpicked the experts was the White Sox, who many saw as the 2^nd best team in the division after winning 85 games the previous season.  D+

AL West:

Oakland – 96 (88-95) – I said 2012 was not a fluke and they’d repeat as division champs. Missed their win total by 1 game.

Texas – 91 (84-92) – “They should still win about 90”.

Anaheim – 78 (84-90) – “Again, the Angels will miss the playoffs”. I wasn’t buying into the improvements made and hinted that Scioscia’s job might be in jeopardy. Still, they managed to do even worse than I had prognosticated (I’m making liberal use of Mr. Roget today).

Seattle -71  (79-85) – “They could catch the Angels but I don’t think they will”.  Still, I expected them to win a few more games, given that they had 19 games within their own division where they were the clear favorites.

Houston – 51 (50-64) – “If I miss, it will be because they undershoot the low end’. Luckily the Astros won their 50^th game just prior to finishing the season on an uninspired, but not totally uncharacteristic 0-15 run.

I’m giving myself a solid A for this division. I had the correct order when everyone else had proclaimed the Angels champions with Texas the only possible obstacle.

NL East

Atlanta – 96 (83-90) “Closer to .500 than 100 wins”. Um, no.  15 and 4 respectively.

Washington – 86 (85-94) “They’ll be lucky to win 90”. They were the media darlings, but I didn’t fully buy in.  If I slapped myself for being off on the Braves, I deserve a pat on the back for this one.

Mets -74 (67-75)I thought they’d have a hard time reaching 70, but they were within my forecasted range.

Philadelphia – 73 (86-96)I made fun of Ruben Amaro’s offseason but still picked them to be at the top of this division.  I should have read what I wrote more closely before predicting their win total.

Miami – 62 (70-75) Thought they’d overcome trading away all their above-replacement level players (other than a certain highly coveted Mr. Stanton), and still win a respectable 70 games.

Good picks on the Mets and Washington, missed the rest of the division badly. C+

NL Central

St. Louis- 97 (79-83) “No wildcard is coming from the Central this year”. If by “No” I meant “All” then I would have hit the bullseye with that statement. 

Pittsburgh -94 (79-85) Correctly predicted they’d break the .500 barrier, didn’t expect them to be quite so good.

Cincinnati – 90 (95-101) “Rest of division is getting weaker, should run away with it”.  I said of a division with 3 playoff teams on it. I should never underestimate Dusty Baker’s incompetence. I could have taken this team to the 100 win level myself.

Milwaukee – 74 (83-88) I don’t even have a comment for them.

Cubs – 66 (58-70) “Astros aren’t around to keep them out of last place”. Hey, I got this one right!

If the NL East was a C+, no way I get more than a D here.

NL West

Dodgers – 92 (85-92) – “their offense is much better than the Giants”.  So is everyone else’s, I suppose.

Arizona – 81 (84-90) – I said they’d improve but not enough to win their division. They ended up with the exact same 81-81 record two years in a row

San Francisco – 76 (90-99) – “They’ll hit some rough patches”. Yeah, I didn’t think it would be for 6 months.

San  Diego – 76 (71-79) -  “Will battle Colorado and Mets for the worst pitching staff in the league”. Ended up with a 3.98 ERA. Only 2 NL teams (Colorado was one of them) ended up > 4.00.  Not a bad forecast.

Colorado – 74 (66-74) “Can’t stop other teams from scoring runs”. League worst 4.44 ERA.

I whiffed on the Giants, but was on or close with the rest of the teams.  B.

Overall I’m giving myself a B- grade.   I picked a Rays vs Reds World Series and at least both those teams made playoffs, as opposed to all those Blue Jays/Angels vs Nationals picks that seemed to dominate the media in the spring.   Tell me what you think of my picks in the comments below, and leave your World Series predictions there.  On the line are bragging rights.  I’m updating my pick to Red Sox over Cardinals.

The best got better

Obviously I must be talking about our Red Sox.  The best team in the league last year got better and they’re among the favorites to go deep in the playoffs.  What’s that you say? They weren’t the best team last year – they only won 69 games?  How’s that possible?  On paper they surely were preseason picks to get a shot at a ring.  Oh yeah, Bobby V got involved.....  

No, I’m taking about the latest version of OOTP.  Unlike the Red Sox, last year’s version was also very good.  But somehow, almost unbelievably, it’s even better this year.   I love the depth of this game and all the different ways you can play it as I’ve mentioned in previous reviews. This year’s version has a lot of subtle improvements.  There is a new player origin system - not only a customizable draft but also international free agents, both amateurs and established players, and ability to scout internationally and in the indy leagues for that diamond in the rough.  In fact the entire scouting engine has been improved.  Also the trading AI is much better. In the past I used to be able to "cheat" by making trades that maybe only Ruben Amaro Jr. would realistically accept. 

Anyhow, I just recently started a game to try and see if I could do as well at managing the Sox as John Farrell has.

2013 MLB draft

The MLB draft starts tonight. The Red Sox have the 7th overall pick, and then pick again at #45 (in round 2), and then the 7th pick of each round.   Last year, they did draft a Canadian, Keaton Briscoe, who is now playing for the Greenville Drive. This year, there are several promising Canadian players eligible for the draft, including several from Alberta. I have a rundown of the top Albertans here.  Hoping the Red Sox select one of them.  I will update this if/when the Sox do pick a Canadian player.