2014 MLB Predictions

I'll never learn. Every year I subject myself to the punishment of putting predictions in writing that inevitably look awful in retrospect. Although not as bad as certain professional sports writers who against all odds manage to predict their own division exactly backwards. I can't give this picture enough love:

Screenshot courtesy of SOSHer BannedByNYYFans

At least you gotta give CHB credit for making predictions knowing how much ridicule he is exposing himself to.

Anyhow, I'm going to try something a bit different this year. Instead of specific records or division standings, I will aim to make one radical projection for each team and division. I don't expect to get too many of them right, but at least this maybe entertaining.


Let's start with our favourite division:

AL East:
"Best division in baseball" won't have any wildcard teams, although every team that doesn't have a maple leaf on their logo will have a reasonable shot at winning the division.

Boston - I don't want to be called superstitious, but I predicted 86 wins last year and the season ended with duckboats. So, I'll keep this simple and predict 86 again. (And hope I'm wrong again!).  I have more Red Sox predictions here.
Tampa Bay - Their pitching staff will disappoint, keeping them from going over the 90 win mark - could even drop all the way to 4th place.
Toronto - After a disappointing 2013 with such high expectations, they will disappoint even more in 2014. Canadian GM Alex Anthopolous is smart enough to see that and Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion will have a new place to call home by the time the dog days of summer roll around. I bet they wish they still had Henderson Alvarez.
New York - Injuries and age will finally catch up with them and they'll struggle to reach .500 (I feel like I've made this prediction for about the past 10 seasons. EVENTUALLY it will have to be right, no?). Some controversy over whether to keep starting Jeter when he's hurting the team by being on the field, will be alleviated by it not mattering once they drop out of the race.

AL Central:
There will be a pennant race into late September. Tigers will not be assured of a playoff spot.

Chicago - White Sox will not be the worst team in Chicago this season. Not a bold prediction? The Cubs won more games than them last year.
Cleveland - Jason Kipnis will firmly entrench himself in the "Who's the best 2nd baseman in the league" argument, but that won't be enough for the Indians to go from making the playoffs to not winning more than 81 games. It's called "regression to mean".  Sorry, Tito.
Detroit - Will struggle to win 90. Biggest disappointment outside of Georgia.
Kansas City - PLAYOFFS! Maybe even a division title.
Minnesota  - The Yankees will be wishing they still had Phil Hughes, and the the Twins will battle Cleveland for 3rd place and maybe even break the .500 mark.

AL West
Injuries to key Rangers and A's players will keep this division from being as strong as it was the last few seasons. But the rest of the division will still be looking up at these two.

Houston - Won't be the worst team in the league the 2nd half. 70 wins within reach.
Los Angeles - 4th place.
Oakland - Hard to believe this they are back-to-back reigning division champions. Won't 3-peat, but may get the 2nd wildcard spot.
Seattle - Improve to close to .500 but not in any playoff contention. For a change, they have the bats but not the arms.  Until a July trade to acquire David Price from Tampa.
Texas - Prince Fielder is going to love the Texas Heat. In spite of all the injuries they've suffered before the season even started, they will win the division for only the 3rd time this century. (Note: the other two times they made it to the Fall Classic).

NL East
Washington will run away with this division with very little competition.

Atlanta - Sorry peach state, no playoffs for you.
Miami - Will battle Atlanta for a meaningless 2nd place in this division. Jose Fernandez will end up ahead of Clayton Kershaw in Cy Young balloting.
New York - This team could win 90 games! Said Sandy Alderson, not me. They do have a really good future. But the future won't arrive in 2014 as they will finish in last place.
Philadelphia - They will make a smart trade at some point in the season. When Ruben Amaro Jr. is your GM this is as bold a prediction as it gets.
Washington - Only 100 win team in majors.  21 year old (yeah, really) Bryce Harper is named MVP, Strasburg could take the Cy.

NL Central
Cincinnati and Milwaukee will remind St. Louis that there are still some competitive teams in this division. But Pittsburgh won't be one of them.

Chicago - Jeff Samardzija will be very good. "This is the year!" would be a really bold thing for me to say. I won't. Last place. Again. Not really going out on a limb here.
Cincinnati - With Dusty Baker gone, they will win more playoff games this year than they have in total since winning the World Series in 1990 (Five in 23 years, if you're wondering). Billy Hamilton may have a sub .300 OBP but his speed will allow him to be a key offensive contributor in spite of that.
Milwaukee - Along with Miami, among most improved teams in baseball. Will contend for a wildcard spot.
Pittsburgh - Will miss playoffs.  See Indians, Cleveland.
St. Louis - By the end of the season, neither Adam Wainwright nor Michael Wacha will be this team's ace.

NL West
Three team race with the Dodgers needing to hold off Arizona and San Francisco to repeat. Colorado will open some eyes early before eventually fading.

Arizona - Will be in pennant race through late September. A good offense was improved with the addition of Mark Trumbo, and bullpen was bolstered by removing Heath Bell.
Colorado - Canadian Justin Morneau will like the thin Denver air. 30 home runs within reach. This team will be competitive, but not enough to contend in this division.
Los Angeles - Remember all the drama with the Yankees in the late 70s played out in the press? There will be lots of entertainment for non-Dodger fans this year. Someone will be run out of town.
San Diego - Last place, Bud Black will be unemployed.
San Francisco - A good old Giants/Dodgers rivalry will be rekindled. Giants will contend for a playoff spot, may even overtake LA if they stumble.

MLB Playoff predictions

Now that all the playoff matchups have been set, it is time for me to make postseason predictions.  But in keeping true to the spirit of this site, these will be based on the amount of Canadian (and bonuses for Albertan) content of the playoff rosters, as well as links to Red Sox players.

Let’s start with the American League:  The wildcard match features the Texas Rangers who will host the surprising Baltimore Orioles.  The O’s don’t have any Canadians or any former Red Sox players.  Texas has BC native Ryan Dempster as an available arm, as well as former Red Sox Adrian Beltre and David Murphy in the lineup. 
This is an easy pick – Texas will advance to the LDS.

Opening Day MLB Power Rankings and Predictions

It's Opening Day Eve! (You Seattle fans be quiet.  Oakland fans don't exist, so I'm not worried about hearing from them). Time for my first real power rankings of the year.

Last year when I started doing these I said I hated putting them in writing because they always look poor in retrospect.  But the flip side is that you can also look like a genius.  Either way it's fun to look back at them afterwards and see where your analysis went wrong and learn from that.


#1 - Texas - do you realize they were 1 strike away from winning the World Series while having a 2 run lead last year?  Twice!  Not even the cursed Red Sox ....... oh, never mind.

Opening Day Eve - final preseason predictions

I made the first set of preseason predictions 2 months ago before spring training games started.  Since then there have been several injuries, player roles have been redefined and teams have finalized opening day rosters.   The season starts this weekend, so time for an updated set of projections, by division:

AMERICAN LEAGUE

East:

No major events in spring training, so I still expect the Red Sox to win.  Tampa and New York will fight for a wildcard spot.  Toronto and Baltimore, while both greatly improved, are still impaired by having to play more than 1/3 of their games against the above teams.

Central:

Twins are still the class of this division.  The Tigers and White Sox could contend but will be looking up most of the season, and KC and Cleveland will be out of the race by Victoria Day (or Memorial Day for those  readers South of the 49th).

West:

Oakland and Texas should have a good fight all season.  I originally had Oakland with a large edge due to their pitching , but the absence of Andrew Bailey evens things up.  I will modify my original forecast, and pick Texas to repeat.   The Angels are on their way down and Seattle will finish last again.

Summary:

AL East: Boston

AL Central: Minnesota

AL West: Texas

Wildcard prediction:  Oakland – easy wins against divisional foes will give them more victories than New York or Tampa. Other teams in the race could be the White Sox and Tigers.

ALCS:  Oakland over Minnesota

MVP: Adrian Gonzalez

RoY: Kyle Drabek

Cy Young: Jon Lester

NATIONAL LEAGUE

East:

With the Phillies injuries, this is now a tighter race than I had envisioned 6 weeks ago.  Philly’s starting pitching should still give them the edge over the Braves though.  In what will realistically only be a 2 horse race all season, the Marlins and Nationals will be looking forward to next year, while Mets fans shouldn’t  be expecting much, and won’t be disappointed.

Central:

This may be the most interesting divisional race.  There are no really good teams, and anyone could get hot for a short while and take the division.  Pirate fans - if either one of you are reading this, I wasn't talking to you.  And those of you in Texas who want to back a winner, better root for the Rangers – your Astros will finish last.  But the Cardinals do not look like much more than a .500 team.  The Brewers made some improvements, but they only won 77 games last year, and their biggest offseason acquisition, Zack Greinke is starting the season on the DL. Last year’s winner, Cincinnati, played above their heads and aren’t likely to have everything fall into place so nicely again.  The Cubs are the 4^th team in this mix and they only won 75 last year, although finished strong.  I would not be surprised if all 4 of these teams played .500 ball, while none of them win more than 88 games.  But if I have to make a wild-ass guess – sorry, I mean educated prediction after poring through thousands of advanced stats and scouting reports – I’m going to pick the Cubs to make the playoffs.  Whoever doesn’t win this division will not be in the wildcard race at all.

West

Another interesting race.  The Giants have the arms but still don’t have offence.  (Although as I recall that didn't end too badly for them last year).  The Rockies are going to give them a fight wire to wire.  I’m going to give Colorado the division crown, and have San Francisco in good shape to battle Atlanta for the wildcard.  San Diego hung in the race most of last year, but apparently did it with smoke and mirrors because other than Adrian Gonzalez, I’m not sure what they had.  Expect them to finish below .500 this year and not be a factor.  LA is an interesting team – I’ve seen them ranked as high as #5 in other power rankings, and as low as 26.  I’m leaning towards the latter.  They may challenge San Diego for a meaningless 3^rd place finish in this division.   The nicest thing I can say about the Diamondbacks is that they might be the best last place team in the league.

Summary:

NL East: Philadelphia

NL Central: Cubs

NL West: Rockies

Wildcard prediction - I think the Giants are a better team than the Braves, but ultimately Atlanta will end up with more wins, due to being able to beat up their divisional foes more easily than San Francisco can.   Don't see any other teams in the hunt for the wildcard.

NLCS:  Rockies over Philly

MVP:  Carlos Gonzalez, with Prince Fielder and Dan Uggla having great years.

RoY:  Freddie Freeman 

Cy Young: Josh Johnson with Ubaldo Jimenez, Roy Oswalt and Matt Garza having excellent seasons. 

World Series:

Oakland over Colorado in 6.

Preseason Predictions

I plan on at least doing monthly MLB power ranking along with commentary on any teams that have moved significantly.   I did the initial one a couple of weeks ago, and will do a February one shortly.

Today I am going to share a few preseason predictions.

2011 MLB Power Rankings

{editor's note: The following originally appeared on the Rulebook Guru's blog.  As a member of the Baseball Blogger's Alliance, he had been asked to participate in an MLB power ranking feature that was put up on MLB Blog Buzz.  He is an umpire who, like me, loves baseball but is much more involved at the local and amateur level, and does not really follow the MLB in depth, so asked me to write this on his behalf.}

Let me start by saying that I hate committing predictions to writing, because I know how poor they always look in retrospect.  One year ago, nobody predicted the Giants defeating the Rangers in the World Series.  Luck and unforeseen circumstances have a very large and underestimated part of a team’s final record, and the best forecaster in the world can’t predict those factors.   The only thing I’m certain of, is that I’ll have made some awful predictions.  I’ve done this in the past, and without fail one of my top teams always ends up being a woeful disappointment that end up below .500, and one of the bottom teams will end up at least fighting for a playoff spot.    Well, enough ado about nothing, on to the rankings…