Thursday, April 5, 2012

The Mayans were right!

Could it get any worse?  Jon Lester doesn't give up a run through 6 2/3 innings. Ryan Sweeney gets a 2 out game tying triple in the 9th against last year's majors saves leader, and we still lose?
Yes, it can!
The two best pitchers we have that aren't on the DL or in the starting rotation combined to give up 3 hits, hit one batter and allow the winning run to score while only recording a single out in the bottom of the 9th.
 Because our slowest baserunner got on base as the tying run we had to pinch run for him, which meant that Nick Punto (whom I shall simply refer to as NFP going forward) had to come into the game.  And this wasn't an exhibition game, it was an actual regular season game that counts in the standings!  And Youkilis had to move across the diamond from third to first base.  He's gonna get grumpy if he keeps getting jerked around like that.  And nobody wants to see a grumpy Youkilis!  What else can I pick on?  Bobby V had Darnell McDonald steal a base with 2 outs in the 9th.   The next batter tripled.   Doesn't Bobby V think DMac could have scored on a triple from 1st base?!?!?!  Was it worth the risk?

I didn't post this immediately after the game, because I needed time to crunch some numbers and do some advanced analysis.  I will try to simplify my statistical findings, so that those of you who aren't math majors with Ph.D.s in statistics can follow along.  
Here are the raw numbers I used in my analysis :  We have played 1 game and are 0-1.  The schedule calls for us to play 162 games.  Extrapolating an 0-1 record over 162 games results in an expected final record of.... (drumroll....) 0-162!   Seriously! this is an irrefutable fact.  I did the math.  I still have my spreadsheet if anybody wants a copy of it.  Maybe it's not the end of the world but for Red Sox fans it might as well be!

Ok,  for those of you whose sarcasm detector isn't working, trust me when I tell you that I don't believe anything that I have written above.  We have NOTHING to worry about.  Last year, we started 2-10 and were in first place on September 1st, with a 9 game wildcard lead.  If we're in the same situation this year, I like our odds.  So if we don't win more than 2 out of our first 12 games, then I may adjust my expectations.  Until then, don't worry!  Baseball season has started - be happy!

1 comment:

  1. Good blog Ruben, it's not the end of the world....but close :)